Star Wars Characters Who Should Have Been Statisticians. Or Not.

I’ve written about opera characters and Jane Austen characters who would have been good statisticians, and on this Star Wars Day let’s visit some characters from Episodes I through VI who, in an alternative galaxy far far away, might have opted for a statistical career.* (Plot spoilers ahead.)

Characters Who Could Have Been Statisticians

Chewbacca. Chewie possesses many characteristics associated with being a good statistician: he is highly intelligent, technically proficient, and an excellent and expressive communicator. He comes up with a creative solution to save the day in almost every scene he’s in.

Boba Fett. Boba tracks Han Solo when Darth Vader and his minions cannot and is skilled at making use of the data around him. Think of his potential if he had been trained in using statistics to benefit all instead of being steered toward bounty hunting.

Toryn Farr. The Star Wars universe is clearly a technologically advanced society, but we rarely see the people who made that technology possible. Toryn, a communications officer at Echo Base on the ice planet Hoth, has one line in The Empire Strikes Back but that line is crucial: “Stand by ion control … Fire.” Her calculations for firing the ion cannon result in a direct hit to the star destroyer and allow the first transport to escape the planet. Unlike many of the main characters, she performs her role flawlessly — the cannon works the first time, with no drama. Kelly Knox wrote that Toryn’s “quiet command is a pivotal moment that resulted in the safety of rebel troopers escaping from Echo Base.”

Characters For Whom Another Profession Might Be Better

I firmly believe that everyone can (and should) learn statistics. Professional statisticians, however, are dedicated to designing studies that collect good data and to extracting accurate information from those data. Some Star Wars characters appear to have a — shall we say — flexible approach to these statistical principles, despite having had good educations (or advanced circuitry and programming).

Jar Jar Binks. The International Statistical Institute’s Declaration of Profession Ethics recognizes that statisticians may face outside pressures and emphasizes: “We produce statistical results using our science and are not influenced by pressure from politicians or funders.” Jar Jar is easily manipulated. Without realizing that his strings are being pulled, he proposes that the senate immediately give emergency powers to Supreme Chancellor Palpatine, thereby precipitating the end of the Republic.

C-3PO. The protocol droid states probability calculations such as “Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1” after which, of course, the protagonists successfully navigate the asteroid field.** Where did C-3PO get those numbers? If the probability is based on empirical data, he should give the source of the data and relevant background so that his audience can assess whether this probability applies to the current situation. Was there a galactic database on asteroid field navigation that recorded one successful and 3,720 unsuccessful attempts?*** Or did Threepio do a simulation study? Did he account for pilot skill and type of asteroid field in his probability calculation?

A forecaster is well calibrated if the long-run occurrence of events agrees with the probabilities assigned to them — for example, if we look at the set of events forecast to have a 20% probability, we would expect 20% of those events to actually occur. A weather forecaster is well calibrated if it actually rains on 40% of the days for which the forecaster predicts a 40% chance of rain (and similarly for every other percentage forecast). In episodes I through VI, no event to which C-3PO assigns high probability (being destroyed in the asteroid field, being killed in an attack on an Imperial Star Destroyer, failing to survive a night outside on Hoth) occurs, and in other Star Wars books and movies his predictions also fail. C-3PO may be one of the worst calibrated forecasters in the galaxy.

Obi-Wan Kenobi (and other Jedi knights). The Jedi are skilled at martial arts and appear to mean well, but they would have been better served by collecting data about the clone army and the Emperor’s machinations instead of relying so heavily on this Force thing. Statistically speaking, being strong in the Force does not seem to be associated with long-term survival, since nearly all of the Jedi except for Yoda and Obi-Wan are killed in Episode III. Yoda is saved by Chewbacca, not the Force.

Advice such as “Use your feelings, Obi-Wan, and find him you will” (Episode III, from Yoda) and “Luke, trust your feelings” (Episode IV, from the dead Obi-Wan, or perhaps Luke is hallucinating) is antithetical to the core statistical value of objectivity. In fact, Obi-Wan does not use his feelings to find Anakin — he follows Padme.

Toryn Farr relied on data and mathematics to disable the star destroyer, and did her job perfectly. Episode IV might have been much shorter had Toryn been put in charge of the Death Star operation.****

Footnotes

*May 4 has been known as Star Wars Day since 1978 (May the 4th Be With You). Many thanks to Wookieepedia for background information on the characters.

**Is C-3PO aware that Obi-Wan and Jango Fett (along with his son Boba) both successfully navigated asteroid fields in Episode II? Also, C-3PO’s wording is unclear. If he wants to express that survival is unlikely (and has a source for his numbers), he should say “only about 3 out of every 10,000 previous crews who have attempted to navigate asteroid fields have survived” or “I estimate the probability of successfully navigating an asteroid field to be 1/3,271.” If he insists on using odds (so that Han Solo can respond with “never tell me the odds”), he should say “the odds against successfully navigating an asteroid field are 3,270 to 1.”

***The National Weather Service takes this approach to calculating the probability of being struck by lightning. Averaging the number of deaths and injuries from lightning strikes over a ten year period (2009 - 2018), they estimated an average of 27 deaths and 243 injuries from lightning strikes per year. Dividing by the population of the United States (about 330 million in 2019) yields an estimated probability of being struck as (27 + 243)/(330 million), or approximately 1/1,222,000. Note that the National Weather Service gives the data source (the NWS storm data) and details of the calculation, so the reader knows this is an estimate of the national probability.

Some people, however, are at higher risk of being killed by lightning than others. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, looking at data from 2006 to 2021, provided further breakdowns: 73% of all lightning deaths occur in June, July, and August; 80% of lightning deaths are male; and the state with the most lightning deaths (18% of the total lightning deaths during this time period) is Florida.

****In a society that clearly has high AI capabilities, could they not have programmed a drone to destroy the Death Star?

Sharon LohrMay 4, 2025